National Institute Economic Review articles from July 2007

National Institute Economic Review archives from July 2007

The world economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
July 1, 2007... * Global growth will remain very strong this year and next despite a weaker American economy and the recent rise in real interest rates. * Against this background a pick-up in OECD inflation in 2008 will be moderate. * The US economy...

The UK economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
July 1, 2007... * GDP will continue to expand strongly but consumer spending growth will remain muted. * House-price inflation is forecast to slow from 10.2 per cent this year to 3.3 per cent in 2008 and 2.3 per cent in 2009. * One more quarter-point...

Interest rates and business returns.
July 1, 2007... Introduction The July interest rate increase has taken the Bank of England's Base Rate to the highest value for six years. In figure 1 we show the forward estimates for the nominal short-term interest rate taken from the Bank of England's...

Risk premia and the world economy.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
July 1, 2007... In 2006, global output, measured in terms of purchasing power parities, expanded by 5.4 per cent, the fastest rate of growth since 1973. Despite a higher oil price and the recent rise in global long-term interest rates, we expect world growth...

Growth and labour input in North America.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)(Statistical data)
July 1, 2007... Output growth slowed in the US and Mexico in the first quarter of 2007, while the Canadian economy accelerated. The US and Mexico both suffered from weak export growth, with the housing market continuing to put strain on domestic demand growth...

Capital investment drives growth in East Asia.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)(Statistical data)
July 1, 2007... The major economies of East Asia expanded briskly in the opening quarter of this year, following strong performances at the end of last year and lending further evidence to a diversification away from dependence on US demand. In the opening...

Euro Area: beating expectations?(THE WORLD ECONOMY)(Statistical data)
July 1, 2007... Growth in the Euro Area looks relatively robust, with Germany performing particularly strongly. Since the April forecast, we have raised again our projections for real GDP growth in 2007 in the Euro Area to 2 3/4 per cent, around the same level...

Fiscal policy in Europe.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
July 1, 2007... In the past twelve months the government budget situation in Germany has improved markedly, and the budget deficit has moved from 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2005 to 1.7 per cent in 2006, with further improvements in prospect. Over the same period...

Prospects for the UK economy.
July 1, 2007... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd,...

Evaluating forecast uncertainty.
July 1, 2007... The National Institute has been producing forecasts since 1958, and they are an essential part of our contribution to the policy debate in the UK and elsewhere. Model-based forecasts for the UK have been published every quarter (1) since the...

Introduction: technology, jobs and skills.
July 1, 2007... Throughout history technological advance has been a source of increasing prosperity for many. There is also little doubt that advances in technology have affected the way we work and the skills we employ in our jobs. With the spread of the...

Computers and pay.
July 1, 2007... This paper describes the diffusion of computer use among jobs in Britain, and shows that the technology is having notable effects on the labour market. By 2006 three in four jobs entailed job-holders using computers, while for two in four jobs...

ICT and the returns to schooling and job-specific experience.(information and communication technologies)(Report)
July 1, 2007... We use the United Kingdom Labour Force Survey to estimate the returns to schooling and job-specific experience in sixteen different industry sectors, over the period 1994-2001. Next, assuming skill levels are fixed, we assess the marginal...

Does offshoring reduce industry employment?
July 1, 2007... This paper looks at the implications of offshoring for industry employment whilst explicitly accounting for the scale and technology effects of offshoring. The effects of offshoring on employment are analysed using industry-level data for 17...

Human capital, job tasks and technology in East Germany after reunification.(Report)
July 1, 2007... At the time of the fall of the Berlin wall, employees in East Germany were at least as well educated as employees in West Germany in terms of formal educational qualifications. However, it is unclear to what extent the skills and knowledge...

Internal versus external labour flexibility: the role of knowledge codification.
July 1, 2007... This article uses a competence-based approach to the firm in order to analyse the recent destabilisation of internal labour markets. We argue that increasing knowledge codification made possible by the diffusion of information and communication...