National Institute Economic Review articles from July 2004

National Institute Economic Review archives from July 2004

The world economy.(At A Glance ...)
July 1, 2004... * The global upturn remains intact despite a slowdown in the Chinese economy, now forecast to grow by 7.3 per cent in 2004. * The Japanese recovery is proving stronger than expected: GDP will grow by 3.6 per cent this year. * The...

The UK economy.
July 1, 2004... * The economy will grow by 3.3 per cent in 2004 and by 2.7 per cent in 2005. * Consumer price inflation will reach 2.1 per cent by the end of next year. * Government spending will contribute over 1 percentage point of annual GDP...

Commentary: the UK economy.
July 1, 2004... Introduction The British economy has grown rapidly in the past quarter reflecting the fact that monetary and fiscal policy remain expansionary at the same time as there has been a general recovery in the world economy. The Euro Area is...

Global inflationary pressures rising.(The World Economy)
July 1, 2004... Global inflationary pressures have been building over the last 12 months. These rising pressures reflect emergence from the global recession of 2001-2 and fiscal laxity in several of the world's largest economies, as well as a number of...

Prospects for the UK economy.
July 1, 2004... Introduction The economy continued to grow faster than its trend rate in the first half of 2004. Preliminary estimates show GDP rising by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of the year. Measured on an annualised basis, this brings the...

The current position of UK house prices.(real house price equilibrium)
July 1, 2004... Introduction House price inflation in the UK has been particularly high in recent years. This has led to much discussion concerning the future path of house price growth. Whether the future scenario involves a moderation or instead a sharp...

The impact of fiscal and monetary policy imbalances on the UK economy.
July 1, 2004... Introduction Government expenditure has been rising rapidly as a proportion of GDP in recent years, and has risen from 39.5 per cent in 2002 to 40.9 per cent in 2003 and 2004 and is anticipated to rise to 41.5 per cent in 2005. Around two...

An assessment of Bank of England and national institute inflation forecast uncertainties.
July 1, 2004... This article evaluates the density forecasts of inflation published by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It extends the analysis of the Bank of England's fan charts in an earlier article by...

Britain's productivity gap with the United States abd Europe: a historical perspective.
July 1, 2004... Since the mid-1990s, an almost universal belief has developed amongst economic commentators that the United States has undergone a productivity miracle and that European economies are now suffering from chronic sclerosis. As a result, the...

The pact is dead: long live the pact.(Stability and Growth Pact)
July 1, 2004... The ECOFIN Council decision of November 2003 that noted the existence of 'excessive deficits in France and Germany but did not impose sanctions on these two governments was widely interpreted as sounding the death-knell for the Stability and...

Social networks: their role in access to financial services in Britain.
July 1, 2004... Almost one in ten adults in Britain do not use mainstream financial services. Most of them are not in paid employment. However, most people without paid work have accounts. Two hypotheses have been put forward: (i) reluctance by financial...

Statistical appendix.(Illustration)
July 1, 2004... STATISTICAL APPENDIX Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1. Gross domestic product [pounds sterling] billion, 2001 prices, seasonally adjusted ...