National Institute Economic Review articles from July 2001

National Institute Economic Review archives from July 2001

COMMENTARY.
July 1, 2001... Growth prospects Economic activity has clearly slowed markedly throughout the world economy in recent months. This appears to be having an increasing effect on the short-term prospects for growth in the UK. Our global economic forecasts...

Recent developments and summary of the forecast.
July 1, 2001... Introduction The past few weeks have seen fluctuating views about Britain's immediate economic prospects, arising essentially from the fact that the traded and non-traded sectors are behaving very differently. Thus the final estimate of...

The forecast in detail.(Statistical Data Included)
July 1, 2001... Exchange rates and interest rates (table I) Martin Weale We have argued that the base rate should be reduced once again, as a precautionary measure. If the economic situation improves as our forecast suggests, then the reduction is...

Recent economic developments.(Statistical Data Included)
July 1, 2001... Prospects for the world economy now appear bleaker than they have for more than five years, with the growth of output and trade having begun to slow in all regions. GDP growth in the OECD area is expected to slow particularly strongly this...

Prospects for North America and Japan.(Statistical Data Included)
July 1, 2001... United States Over the past nine months economic activity in the United States has slowed abruptly. Several indicators suggest that the economy has come close to outright recession. Whilst some slowdown in activity had long been expected,...

Prospects for the European Union.(Statistical Data Included)
July 1, 2001... The slowdown in growth in the Euro Area now appears likely to be more pronounced than was originally expected at the start of the year. In particular the economic outlook for Germany has deteriorated considerably in the last few months. Annual...

WHAT BECAME OF THE NEW ECONOMY?
July 1, 2001... The Review is pleased to give hospitality to CLARE Group articles, but is not necessariiy in agreement with the views expressed. Members of the CLARE Group are M.J. Artis, T. Besley, A.J.C. Britton, W.A. Brown, W.J. Carlin, J.S. Flemming,...

THE NEW BRITISH ECONOMY.(Statistical Data Included)
July 1, 2001... Richard Kneller [*] Garry Young [**] The British economy has performed well since the recession of the early 1990s. How much of this is due to the revolution in information and communications technology (ICT)? We find that the stock of...

THE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY: A STUDY OF AN INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION.
July 1, 2001... Michela Vecchi [*] In 1989 the UK began a process of transferring an almost wholly state-owned electricity supply industry (ESI) into a collection of privately-owned generation, transmission and distribution utilities. Using data from...

AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON FORECAST ERRORS.
July 1, 2001... Michael P. Clements [*] David F. Hendry [**] Using annual observations on industrial production over the last three centuries, and on GDP over a 100-year period, we seek an historical perspective on the forecastability of these UK...

STATISTICAL APPENDIX.
July 1, 2001... STATISTICAL APPENDIX Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1 Gross domestic product [pound] billion, 1995 prices, seasonally adjusted Final...