National Institute Economic Review articles from January 2006

National Institute Economic Review archives from January 2006

The world economy.
January 1, 2006... * In 2006, inflation will rise to 3.3 per cent in the United States and deflation will end in Japan. * However, the oil-price shock is having a weaker impact on wage inflation in most G7 economies than expected. * American GDP growth...

The UK economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
January 1, 2006... * GDP will grow by 2.3 per cent in 2006 and 2.7 per cent in 2007. * Export growth will strengthen over the next two years, helped by the favourable composition of Britain's exports. * Inflation will remain around the Government's target...

Commentary: the housing market and government policy.
January 1, 2006... The current market situation The current view is that, at least for the time being, house prices have stabilised; the Government's house price index has moved erratically but showed a rise in November after a fall in October and the...

Impact of the oil price on expectations and wages.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
January 1, 2006... Global inflation prospects have generally improved in recent months, as the recent rise in oil prices has thus far had a more muted impact on wage growth than anticipated. Second-round inflation effects from the oil price are therefore expected...

House prices and consumption in North America.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
January 1, 2006... In the third quarter of 2005 GDP growth accelerated in the US, Canada and Mexico. Between the second and third quarters this resulted in an increase in the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA)...

Rebalancing of growth across Asia.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
January 1, 2006... Domestic demand picked up in many Asian economies in the third quarter of last year with Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and China all benefiting from a domestically driven recovery. Year-on-year growth in domestic demand reached a 2 year high of...

Indirect tax rates and the euro area inflation target.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
January 1, 2006... The Euro Area economy is showing some signs of strength, but sluggish dynamics in domestic demand and diminishing contributions from net trade suggest that this upturn will be only moderate in nature. As such, our growth forecast remains...

Consumption in the Euro area.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
January 1, 2006... Consumption has been weak in the Euro Area, and in order to evaluate longer-term prospects it is useful to analyse why this might have been the case. If consumption and real personal disposable income are growing at about the same rate there...

UK economy forecast.
January 1, 2006... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd,...

The uncertainty of government debt projections.
January 1, 2006... Since 1998, fiscal policy in the UK has been guided by two rules: the golden rule to borrow over the economic cycle only to invest, such that the average annual surplus on the public sector current budget as a share of GDP is greater or equal...

Net migration and the macroeconomy: inflation and output effects.
January 1, 2006... Since the last NIESR forecast in October the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) has released new projections of the UK population. (1) In comparison to previous projections these show substantial upward revisions to growth in the population...

Globalisation and UK trade.
January 1, 2006... Introduction Recent data on the UK balance of payments suggest that the deficit is deteriorating, and this may lead to downward pressure on the exchange rate. Of course some of the recent deterioration is due to temporary factors, such as...

Employment and childcare: introduction.
January 1, 2006... This edition of the Review focuses on employment and the childcare and early years sector, presenting findings from research with an emphasis on social policy. The papers address two main aspects: the sector as an employer; and the role of...

Farewell to childcare?
January 1, 2006... The paper argues that in the early years field England has started a process of change from what is termed a 'childcare discourse' to a 'pedagogical discourse', the former representing a fragmented approach to services for children, the latter...

Childcare and mothers' employment: approaching the millennium.
January 1, 2006... Childcare provision in the UK has evolved alongside the expansion of mothers' employment, transforming the experiences of successive generations. This paper reviews some mixed evidence on child outcomes of maternal employment and offers a...

Where are the men? Gender segregation in the childcare and early years sector.
January 1, 2006... Men are a small minority of childcare workers, and this has contributed to skills shortages which have affected the sector's ability to meet rising demand. The paper looks at current initiatives aimed at recruiting men, particularly through the...

Stability and change in childcare and employment: evidence from the United States.
January 1, 2006... Using a unique data set from the US to examine the association between employment stability and childcare stability, we find that childcare use is fairly stable for current and former welfare recipients. In addition, although childcare...