National Institute Economic Review articles from January 2004

National Institute Economic Review archives from January 2004

At a glance ...(global economy, United Kingdom economic conditions, Japanese economy)
January 1, 2004... The world economy * The world recovery is gathering strength: global GDP will rise by 4.1 per cent in 2004, up from 3.3 per cent in 2003. * The United States economy will grow by 3.9 per cent this year, its best performance since 1999,...

Commentary: the UK economy.
January 1, 2004... Economic Prospects We expect economic growth this year at slightly above the long-term trend rate. Our judgement is that the remaining output gap is small and growth slightly faster than trend will close it. The past few weeks have seen a...

The world economy.
January 1, 2004... Continued Dollar Slide and Recovery in Japan The two key factors underlying our forecast this quarter are the continued depreciation of the US$, which is about 4 1/2 per cent weaker in effective terms than in October and 18 per cent below...

Prospects for the UK economy.(United Kingdom)
January 1, 2004... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Marks and Spencer plc, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (Europe) Ltd, Morley...

Recent UK growth: a comparison with France, Germany and the US.
January 1, 2004... Introduction During the second half of the 1990s the UK economy enjoyed a sustained period of strong and stable growth. Since then the slowdown in the world economy that accompanied the collapse in equity markets has served until recently...

Productivity impacts and spillovers from foreign ownership in the United Kingdom.
January 1, 2004... In this paper, we measure the indirect impact of FDI on the total factor productivity of domestic plants in a number of UK manufacturing industries, 1974-95, using a standard production-function-based approach. We use data from the UK ARD and...

The zero interest rate floor (ZIF) and its implications for monetary policy in Japan.
January 1, 2004... This paper uses the IMF's macroeconomic model MULTIMOD to examine the implications of the zero interest rate floor (ZIF) for the design of monetary policy in Japan. Similar to findings in other studies, targeting rates of inflation lower than...

The effects of euro area interest rate changes: evidence from macroeconomic models.
January 1, 2004... This paper examines the effects of changes in Euro Area interest rates using macroeconomic models. It examines the results of a harmonised monetary policy simulation at the Euro Area level using the National Institute of Economic and Social...

Statistical index.(Illustration)
January 1, 2004... STATISTICAL APPENDIX Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1. Gross domestic product billion [pounds sterling], 2000 prices, seasonally adjusted ...