National Institute Economic Review articles from January 1999

National Institute Economic Review archives from January 1999

At a glance ... the UK economy.
January 1, 1999... * Base rates will fall to 5 per cent by the start of 2000 and to below 4 per cent in 2001, the lowest for almost half a century. * Inflation (RPI all items) will drop to 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of this year; excluding mortgage...

The world economy.
January 1, 1999... * The prospects for the US economy in 1999 appear brighter than they did last October, but remain heavily dependent on the health of the stock market. * The Japanese economy is now expected to decline in 1999 by a further half a per cent...

Commentary.(world economics)
January 1, 1999... The Euro Much the most important event for the British economy in the last three months has been the introduction of the euro. It is no longer enough for the Government simply to assert that Britain will join if it is in Britain's...

The UK economy.
January 1, 1999... Section I. Recent developments and summary of the forecast Over the past three months, the good news about the economy has outweighed the bad and the chance of a very steep recession has receded. The widespread gloom that was evident in the...

Fiscal report.(United Kingdom)
January 1, 1999... Government borrowing has fallen sharply over recent years as tight expenditure control has been combined with buoyant revenue. It now appears likely that the budget will be in surplus in the current fiscal year, with the Golden Rule clearly...

Recent economic developments.(The World Economy)
January 1, 1999... Introduction The world economy continues to face strong deflationary pressures at the present time. Whilst growth has remained above trend levels in North America, the Japanese economy has sunk further into recession, and there are...

Prospects for North America and Japan.(The World Economy)
January 1, 1999... United States Recent economic data indicate that the momentum of the present cyclical expansion in the United States continues to be stronger than widely expected at the beginning of last year. GDP is provisionally estimated to have risen...

Prospects for the Euro Area.(The World Economy)
January 1, 1999... In this section we initially discuss developments in Europe as a whole, and present a forecast for the Euro Area for the first time in Table 10. With inflation subdued in the Euro Area, there is a case for potential further reductions in...

Analyzing major recessions: an analytical summary of a new study of large recessions in the twentieth century.
January 1, 1999... Christopher Dow died on 1 December 1998 at the age of 82. He was a Visiting Fellow at the National Institute, coming to work almost every day until a few days before his death. His last project at the Institute had been to write a book on Major...

The US stock market and the global economic crisis.
January 1, 1999... 1. Introduction This article is primarily concerned with whether the US equity market is appropriately priced to reflect current global economic risks. From a policy perspective, this is an important question because if the US equity...

Asymmetric density forecasts of inflation and the Bank of England's fan chart.
January 1, 1999... 1. Introduction Since February 1996 the Bank of England has published in its quarterly Inflation Report a density forecast of inflation, that is, an estimate of the probability distribution of possible outcomes for future inflation....