National Institute Economic Review articles from April 2005

National Institute Economic Review archives from April 2005

The world economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
April 1, 2005... * Global growth prospects remain robust, with world GDP rising by 4.3 per cent in 2005 and 4.2 per cent in 2006. * We now expect oil prices to stay at around $48 a barrel for the rest of the decade, which will dampen global output growth....

The UK economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
April 1, 2005... * In both 2005 and 2006, GDP will grow by 2.7 per cent a year despite a slowdown in consumer spending to an annual rate of 1.9 per cent. * A further rise in interest rates is needed in order to hit the inflation target of 2 per cent a...

The labour government's economic record and economic prospects.
April 1, 2005... When the Labour Party came to power in 1997, it had an agenda for reforming the functioning of the UK economy. It planned to introduce a stability-oriented macroeconomic policy that would enhance growth. It was critical of the high level of...

World economic prospects and the risks from oil prices.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
April 1, 2005... World Growth Growth in the world economy looks robust, with growth averaging over 4 per cent a year in the last 2 years and in the first two years of our forecast. Strong demand in North America is a major factor behind this growth, and it...

House prices, consumption and growth in North America.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
April 1, 2005... The two largest economies of North America finished 2004 strongly: the US economy expanded by over 4.4 per cent on an annual basis, while its northern neighbour, Canada, grew by 2.8 per cent. Growth was driven by domestic demand, with private...

Rebalancing growth in Asia.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
April 1, 2005... Despite the sustained increase in oil prices in 2004, growth in Asia excluding Japan remained considerably resilient last year. Growth has indeed slowed down from the highs achieved in the first half of 2004 to a more sustainable rate as the...

The stability and growth pact and slow growth in Europe.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
April 1, 2005... The Euro Area economy slowed considerably in the second half of 2004 and the outlook for a sustainable economic recovery continues to be restrained by weak domestic demand and a moderation in global economic activity. High and volatile oil...

Correcting US imbalances.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)(current account deficit )
April 1, 2005... In the January Review discussion of the US current account imbalances, we explored the links between the US current account deficit and exchange rates, and focused on the economic adjustments required to correct the US 'triple' deficits. Using...

Prospects for the UK economy.(THE UK ECONOMY)
April 1, 2005... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd,...

Financial instability--research, assessment and policy issues.
April 1, 2005... In this issue of the National Institute Economic Review, we publish five articles from world experts on a key issue of current concern, namely the nature and appropriate response to financial instability. Together the articles constitute a...

Modelling financial instability.
April 1, 2005... Financial instability can have large adverse effects on an economy. One major cause of instability is asset price bubbles. This paper starts by considering how such bubbles can arise due to the expansion of money and credit. The ways in which...

Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress: a survey.
April 1, 2005... A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in contemporary economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies, the signals approach and the...

Monetary and financial stability: so close and yet so far?
April 1, 2005... This paper argues that changes in the financial and monetary regimes since the early 1980s may have made it more likely that financial factors in general, and the booms and busts in credit and asset prices in particular, act as drivers of...

Assessing financial stability: exploring the boundaries of analysis.
April 1, 2005... Within the context of a practical framework for safeguarding financial stability--entailing both prevention and resolution--this paper discusses the practical boundaries and challenges of assessing financial stability. The paper characterises...

Financial regulation, credit risk and financial stability.
April 1, 2005... In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort, has been on improving individual,...

Statistical appendix.(Illustration)
April 1, 2005... STATISTICAL APPENDIX Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1. Gross domestic product f billion, 2001 prices, seasonally adjusted Final...