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National Institute Economic Review articles from April 1998
Quarterly publication publishes research, commentary and forecasts on economic and social issues, includingeconomic modeling and analysis, productivity and competitiveness and education and training.
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National Institute Economic Review archives from April 1998
The UK economy.
April 1, 1998... Section I. Recent Developments and Summary of the Forecast
The performance of the UK economy in recent months has continued to be enviable. Inflation is almost exactly equal to the government's target. Economic growth has slowed down to what...
The world economy. (forecasts)
April 1, 1998... Section 1. Recent Economic Development
Introduction
The effects of the financial turmoil in Asia are beginning to emerge in the industrialised economies, with a sharp decline in export sales to East Asia apparent in the most recently...
Commentary and UK policy implications.
April 1, 1998... Fiscal Policy and the Budget
The improvement in public finances has been abrupt with the PSBR falling from [pounds]23bn in1996/7 to [pounds]0.9bn in the fiscal year just finished- an improvement of 2.8% of GDP. A part of this has been...
Commentary: the single market. (Internal Market Programme in Europe)
April 1, 1998... Introduction
Even the most determined opponent of all things European tends to exempt the single market from criticism. Launched in 1985, the '1992' Internal Market Programme (IMP) was an ambitious attempt to fulfil the original aims of the...
The UK economy. (forecasts)(includes related articles on long run monetary policy and exchange rate assumptions and national minimum wage assumptions)
April 1, 1998... * GDP will grow at under half its trend rate in the rest of 1998; there is a one in three chance output will decline.
* We have lowered our forecast for growth in 1999 from 2.1 to 1.6 per cent; there is now a one in four chance of a...
The world economy. (forecasts)
April 1, 1998... * Euroland will start in 1999 with interest rates around 3.75 per cent, growth of 2.6 per cent and subdued inflation.
* Economies on the periphery of the Euro-zone are diverging sharply from those in the core.
* Japan's Y16 trillion...
Uncertainty and macroeconomic modelling.
April 1, 1998... Economic modellers, or more accurately economic forecasters have, for many years been criticized for the spurious degree of precision implied by point projections of economic aggregates; it is widely felt that increased effort is needed to...
Technical progress and the natural rate in models of the UK economy.
April 1, 1998... 1. Introduction
What are the macroeconomic consequences of technological (or technical) change? The standard neoclassical growth model gives a clear answer. In the long run, the natural rate of growth of the economy is equal to the rate of...
Estimated stabilization costs of the EMU. (European Monetary Union)
April 1, 1998... 1. Introduction
When different countries adopt a common currency, each gives up its own monetary policy. In the common-currency regime monetary policy responds to a shock in a particular country only to the extent that the common monetary...
Optimal monetary policy.
April 1, 1998... 1. Introduction
The new monetary arrangements have created a system where the Bank of England sets interest rates in order to deliver an inflation target. Mr King, the Deputy Governor, is reported(1) to have said that eventually he hopes...