IMF Staff Papers articles from July 2002

IMF Staff Papers archives from July 2002

Explaining Russia's output collapse.
July 1, 2002... All the transition economies of Eastern Europe and the Baltics, Russia, and other former Soviet Union countries (hereinafter referred to as BRO) have experienced major declines in output after the launch of economic reforms. The magnitude and...

The long-run behavior of commodity prices: Small trends and big variability.
July 1, 2002... "What commodity prices lack in trend, they make up for in variance." Angus Deaton (1999, P. 27) This paper is concerned with the empirical behavior of commodity prices--in particular, changes in the variability of commodity prices and...

Human capital convergence: A joint estimation approach.
July 1, 2002... In the growth literature, considerable attention has been given to whether income per capita is unconditionally or conditionally converging across countries over time. (1) The evidence is mixed, and no firm conclusions have been reached...

The inverted fisher hypothesis: Inflation forecastability and asset substitution.
July 1, 2002... This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted I Fisher hypothesis (IFH) proposed by Carmichael and Stebbing (1983) (hereinafter referred to as Carmichael and Stebbing). The standard Fisher hypothesis implies...

The optimal subsidy to private transfers under moral hazard.
July 1, 2002... Recently, governments have become more interested in using private, nonmarket income transfers to supplement or substitute for government income transfers. The motivations for this include fiscal necessity, the belief that the private sector...

Uncovered interest parity in crisis.(interntional finance)
July 1, 2002... Uncovered interest parity (UIP) is a classic topic of international finance, a critical building block of most theoretical models, and a dismal empirical failure. UIP states that the interest differential is, on average, equal to the ex post...