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A monthly trade magazine that presents news, analysis and strategies to inform and educate traders in futures, options and derivatives markets. Provides analysis of global markets and information on price movement, volatility, and future trends. Articles
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The great divide.(Editor's Note)(Editorial)
February 1, 2004... In a world of energy uncertainty, the question is: what kind of car would you buy? Would you go for the Hummer, a derivative favorite of California Governor (and movie star) Arnold Schwarzenegger, with a price tag ranging from $53,000 to...
A balanced pair.(Sound Off!)(Letter to the Editor)
February 1, 2004... I enjoyed your article on pairs trading ("A simplified approach to pairs trading," December 2003) but found that it was a bit too simplified to give the uninitiated a true sense of how the strategy works. As a professional pairs trader at...
Trading ain't rocket science.(Sound Off!)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The Trader Profile of Klaus Gagel in the December issue ["Klaus Gagel: Cloud scalper"] is even more evidence of what we see in trading time and time again. That is, that relatively well-educated, successful people from other areas (in Gagel's...
Scrutiny shadows Eurex US launch.(Off The Fast Track)
February 1, 2004... Throughout the contentious process to establish its U.S.-based futures exchange, Eurex maintained it would be able to launch a 20-hour a day exchange by Feb. 1, 2004. The exchange would allow customers to trade dollar-denominated interest rate...
Merril buying ABN Amro.(New Number Two)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... After taming down in the last couple years, the merger mania that saw considerable consolidation in the futures industry in the late 1990s might be ready to run wild once again. Merrill is going to move up on the list of the world's top futures...
Nymex settles with E-Speed.(Another Suit, Another Dollar)(New York Mercantile Exchange)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the lone holdout among the major exchanges in the U.S. challenging a lawsuit over Wagner Patent infringement, settled with E-Speed for $8 million over three years. A year ago, Nymex decided to fight the...
CBOT moves into next era.(New Year, New Fees. New System)(Chicago Board of Trade)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The CBOT continues to work on becoming more competitive while completing an enormous technology and clearing transition that appears to have gone off smoothly, by most accounts.
At a special meeting of its board of directors on Dec. 29 the...
'Eternal options?(Americas)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... How would you like your option to offer protection yet never lose value with time? The CBOT, for one, thinks it's an intriguing concept and has entered into discussions with electronic communication network (ECN) and futures exchange applicant...
Parmalat fallout.(Europe)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Italy's Borsa Italia is proud of the stability of its MIB 30 futures during the Parmalat fiasco (shares and options were frozen, but the MIB continued to trade), and you can bet the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)...
Introducing Afet.(Pacific Rim)(Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand (Afet))(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Fourteen brokers are coming together under the regulation of The Agricultural Futures Trading Commission (AFTC) to offer futures trading of agricultural products in Thailand as the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand (Afet).
...
Refco in Korea.(Pacific Rim)(HanMag Futures Corp)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... In the midst of many "firsts" in the futures market, Refco LLC has joined hands with Korean HanMag Futures Corp., making it the first time a U.S. futures trading firm has partnered up with a local Korean futures firm.
Refco acquired 43.2%...
Tilly ready for competition.(Trading Places)(Edward Tilly)
February 1, 2004... Edward Tilly, the new vice chairman at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, is ready to go from one challenge to another during his one-year term. The current market maker for Botta Capital Management says many of those challenges will be driven...
Germany opens arms to hedge funds.(Managed Money Review)(Illustration)
February 1, 2004... In 2003, the number of retail derivative brokers in Germany surged--although no hard numbers are yet available--but customers so far have tended more to nibble than to bite. One reason: tight laws restricting retail access to alternative...
How high can Dow go?(Hot Commodities)(Dow Jones and Company Inc.)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... It's a good run, but it can last forever. "My gut feeling is that it can't be sustained," says Mike Cavanaugh, equity analyst for My Trading Online, of the recent surge in the Dow Jones futures. Cavanaugh, though, doesn't trade on his gut and...
Not so mad corn.(Hot Commodities)(Bovine spongiform encephalopathy)
February 1, 2004... While live cattle prices remain damaged by the discovery of a Washington state dairy cow infected with BSE or mad cow disease, corn prices have already recovered from the shock, taking out its November highs 10 days after the mad cow discovery....
Hi ho, silver!(Hot Commodities)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Silver in January rallied to levels not seen in six years, breaching the $6 per oz. level for the first time since 1998 and one man thinks that it is only the beginning. Business writer and investor Cliff Wilson is calling for $49 Silver in...
Mad cow hits home.(Hot Commodities)(cattle industry)
February 1, 2004... This summer's hull cattle market can be attributed to the discovery of mad cow disease (BSE) in Canada and when a 23. month Japanese bull was discovered with the disease in October, cattle prices touched the sky.
The market reaction was...
New volatile plateau supports energies: tightening Opec quotas and production uncertainty, improving economies and a weaker dollar all point to firm prices--and that's not even mentioning potential weather or terrorist factors.(Markets)
February 1, 2004... According to the law of supply and demand, high prices reflecting demand should greater production of a commodity. In the case of energy markets, traders are having to adjust their thinking about what "high" is or what "high" can do.
After...
Turkey key to Iraq's impact.(Markets)(oil industry)
February 1, 2004... With all the attention focused on the capture of Saddam Hussein and the possible re-opening of Iraqi oilfields, you'd think oil traders might be keying off events in Iraq. If so, it hasn't shown up in prices, which have barely registered a...
Tech talk: crude cycles see price pressure.(Markets)(prices of crude oil)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Crude oil prices should come under downward pressure into mid-March, based on projections by the Cycle Projection Oscillator (CPO), a model that identifies multiple cycle influences and projects the composite into the future.
Although the...
Are highs in gas natural?(Markets)
February 1, 2004... Natural gas trades above $7.00! It's beginning to seem almost natural. The first major cold front of the season led to a big rally in natural gas. Just like an old house, natural gas immediately felt the impact of the cold weather and, like an...
What fundamentals matter now.(Forex Trader)
February 1, 2004... One of the points we've tried to make in this column is that the forex market, more than any other, is a global one (see "The million-dollar folly in forex," November 2003, and "Trading the axis of economics," March 2003). However, it's hard...
Turning losses into profits with put options: when the market doesn't go down as you expected, you can still salvage some value from a put option or even make it profitable by making some simple adjustments. Here's how.(Equity Trading Techniques)
February 1, 2004... With the recent range-bound to bullish activity in the stock market, you may have found yourself with a long put position that has taken an unprofitable turn, and you would like to make adjustments to change the bias from bearish to bullish....
Getting 'real' with trading systems: how do trading systems claiming to make $1,000 a day do it? The fact is they probably don't, at least not consistently. That's why you need a mechanical approach.(Trading Techniques)
February 1, 2004... They present it so casualty: You can make a thousand dollars a day."
I hear it all the time. "I trade small. I don't get greedy. I'm happy making a thousand dollars a day."
And that sounds great to me. I, too, would like to trade...
See TED spread: while the TED spread has fallen out of popularity as a tradable instrument, it is still quite useful as a trading indicator when it comes to corporate financial risk and the cost of capital.(Trading Techniques)(Treasury EuroDollar )
February 1, 2004... If Rene Descartes were to make a special guest appearance on one of the many financial talk shows, he might sum up the futures trader's view of the world as "It is exchange-traded, therefore it is." That view, perhaps sufficient in the early...
Reversions of profit in stocks and bonds: you can learn how to control your trading appetite by waiting for divergences in the correlation between S&P 500 and 10-year T-note futures, anticipating they will revert to the mean.(Trading Techniques)
February 1, 2004... As most traders are aware, the stock market is closely related to the bond market. The two markets compete with one another for an investor's savings, and investors must continuously analyze the risk/reward profile of each market to make the...
Casing the Nasdaq for profits: after all that work understanding case-based analysis and preprocessing our market data, is this approach really going to be worth it as a trading application? We find out, using the Nasdaq market.(Technology & Trading)
February 1, 2004... Discussing a nice trading theory is one thing. Executing that theory in the markets is quite another. In this third of three parts, we'll attempt to make this leap in the context of case-based reasoning. First, we introduced the concept....
London Fix.(Sound Recording Review)
February 1, 2004... London Fix
By Tom Hamilton
Muse-Eek Publishing
New York, N.Y.
www.london-fix.com
So often we hear about albums going gold, but rarely do we have gold going album. New York composer Tom Hamilton made this odd...
Going wireless.(Online Trading)(technology)
February 1, 2004... Wireless trading, or mobile order entry, may sound like the next innovation where trading and technology collide, but it's actually a product that's been on the market for at least three years. However, that doesn't mean it has reached its full...
Getting a handle on options: stories abound about inexperienced traders who got in over their heads and were burned with options. But you shouldn't let fear steer you away from these high-potential instruments. This first of a three-part options primer will introduce option strategies from the perspective of bullish expectations for the underlying market.(Futures 101)
February 1, 2004... Options live true to their name. The possibilities and opportunities seem endless and perhaps cause overwhelming confusion for new traders. For traders unfamiliar with how to harness the capabilities of options, inexperienced use can cause...
Be prepared for what you wish for: for managers with little money under management, the idea of controlling growth may seem silly--they just want an allocation. But getting more money than you are prepared to handle may be a bigger dilemma than not getting client funds at all.(Managed Money)
February 1, 2004... After developing and testing the actual trading program, the most important factor for a new commodity trading advisor (CTA) is to manage growth.
Rob Friedl, principal at Fall River Capital, faced capacity issues as a principal at his...
2003 public funds returns (through December).(Funds Review)(Illustration)
February 1, 2004...
2003 public funds returns (through December)
Name of fund Trading advisor(s)
U.S. Closed
Alternative Asset Growth LP Multiple managers
Dean Witter Cornerstone Fund II Northfield Trading: J.W. Henry...
Tops & bottoms of 2003: despite the return of the bull in the equity markets, futures exchanges across the world had record volumes. But 2003 had plenty of volatility: war, Mad Cow and a falling dollar. Old rivals became roommates, old partners became competitors and then there was Eliot Spitzer, who some saw as the Elliott Ness of the modern world and Wall Street saw as Machine Gun Kelly.(Tops & Bottoms)
February 1, 2004... Tops
CME/CBOT join hands
It really happened. The CBOT/CME, historical rivals, found a way to common clearing. After years of failing to meet future commission merchant (FCM) demands for greater clearing efficiency, Chicago's battling...
Dick Grasso.(Rogue's Gallery)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Dick Grasso. New York Stock Exchange Chairman and CEO Dick Grasso was forced out in September after a furor erupted when his deferred compensation package of $1395 million was revealed. This for the man in charge of a self regulatory...
Daniel Gordon.(Rogue's Gallery)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Daniel Gordon, the 27-year-old former head energy trader at Merrill Lynch, pleaded guilty to charges he stole $43 million from the firm. The onetime whiz kid implicated superiors at Merrill in a scheme to falsify records of the firm's energy...
A higher market?(Rogue's Gallery)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... A higher market? In February the CME levied $2.6 million in fines on 18 former workers on its floor for illegal drug trading.
Cantor Fitzgerald.(Rogue's Gallery)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Cantor Fitzgerald The bond trading firm, which lost 658 employees in the September 11 World Trade Center terrorist attack, was sued in May for back rent due prior to that fateful day. The suit, filed by Silverstein Properties, was for just over...
Shock and awe.(Top and Bottom)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... In a variation of the market advice to "buy the rumor and sell the fact," stock indexes and the dollar rallied and gold and oil dropped when the first U.S. bombs fell in Baghdad. This most telegraphed punch was thought to be the end of the...
A captive no longer.(ChaChaChanges)(securities industry)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Futures Industry Association proponents of freedom to clear liked to describe the Board of Trade Clearing Corp. (now the Clearing Corp.) as a captive clearinghouse. The CBOT gave BOTCC its freedom, but it has a new taskmaster as the CC will be...
Last chance?(Sign of the Times)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... In July the CME announced plans to open a fully equipped Electronic Trading Resource Center to provide floor traders with an opportunity to learn skills necessary to work in an electronic trading arena.
A tale of two regulators.(Sign of the Times)(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The CFTC collected more than $100 million in fines from enforcement actions in fiscal year 2003. Most came from actions charging multiple energy marketing firms with fraud and manipulation based on false price reporting to indexers and from the...
Brave new world.(Sign of the Times)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... In February $170 million in E-mini S&P trades had to be canceled after prices spiked over 12% in less than one minute.
Similar spikes occurred in the Dow minis and S&Ps in July. Exchange officials blamed the anomalies on the effect of...
Did they really say that?(Off the Charts!)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The SEC, following a year-long investigation into hedge funds, recommended that hedge fund managers register because if hedge fund managers were registered--like say mutual funds--the SEC could catch problems before they got out of hand. See...
No blood for oil futures.(Off the Charts!)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Anti-war activists caused the IPE to suspend trading for two hours on March 18. Brokers reported to the AP that as many as 20 protesters entered the trading floor unplugged phones and attempted to hang protest banners.
I want my--LX.(Off the Charts!)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... It was awkward news last fall for the Nasdaq/Liffe exchange NQLX, formed in trade individual stock futures, that part of its name sake, Nasdaq, was selling its stake. NQLX kept its acronym. It just never spells it out.
Gusher.(Off the Charts!)(cases of gas industry)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The CFTC in March filed and settled an order charging natural gas trader Christopher Chapman with engaging in a fraudulent trading scheme. The order found Chapman placed identical buy and sell limit orders on Nymex's Access electronic trading...
Records.(Tops & Bottoms)(securities industry)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... While Chicago's futures fought the entrance of Eurex to its turf, all three exchanges, as well as others, managed to set all-time volume records. Here is a look at what they are fighting for.
* Setting record volume year in and year out can...
Fights of the year: Chicago exchanges vs. Swiss/German Eurex.(Tops & Bottoms)
February 1, 2004... At the beginning of the year, the CBOT and Eurex were technology partners and CME Chairman Emeritus Leo Melamed was overheard praising Eurex for having the light clearing Structure. By veal end the contentiousness between the German/Swiss...
What's up down under?(Off the Charts!)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Daily Planet, a Melbourne-based brothel, raised A$3.75 million on May 1 after selling 7.5 million shares in the property arm of its business in an initial public offering. Shares rose to A$1.09 from an IPO price of A$0.50.
I'm buying puts on Osama.(Off the Charts!)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... The Policy Analysis Market, PAM, dubbed a
futures market on terrorist attacks, was introduced and scrapped on the same day last August. John Poindexter, of Iran-Contra fame, developed the market as a way to gain intelligence on terrorists...
You can't keep a bad idea down.(Off the Charts!)(Net Exchange)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... In November, Net Exchange, the firm that developed the PAM concept with the Pentagon, announced it aimed to open the market in March 2004.
Seeing Red.(Bad Trade)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... Two years ago alternative investment legend John W. Henry sold his stake in the Florida Marlins after purchasing a majority stake in the Boston Red Sox. The Marlins won the 2003 World Series, defeating the New York Yankees in which Henry once...
Don't go long.(Bad trade)(Iran's stock market)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... In August, the secretary-general of Iran's stock market made those pesky higher stock prices go away. He "outlawed" increases in share prices for two weeks after the market was up 80% for the year.
Trader, trade thyself.(Odd achievements)(CME holdings)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... CME holdings in July was named to the Russell 1000 Index. The CME trades a futures contract based on the index.
Internet.(New For Traders; service introductions)(eSignal)
February 1, 2004... eSignal has launched eSignal University, an online educational service providing users access to numerous classes and training opportunities, all of which focus on teaching customers how to trade using the the eSignal application. The...
Software.(New For Traders)(NexTrend; Ensign)(Brief Article)
February 1, 2004... NexTrend is offering NexTrend Analysis Version 5.0, offering more than 100 feature enhancements including cross hairs, news display indicators, split codes and Fibonacci analysis. With the new release, NexTrend is offering LiveScan Version 2.0...
Dateline.
February 1, 2004...
FEBRUARY
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY
2 3 Crop summary 4
9 U.K. Production 10 Crop summary, 11 Germany Merchandise
Index, PPI Crop production,...
Events coming up.(Calendar)
February 1, 2004... Call the numbers listed for more information. For other seminars, see the classifieds on pages 80-85.
The World Money Show. FEB. 2-5 Gayloard Palms Resort. Orlando, Fla. www.moneyshow.com. (800)970-4355.
Trade With The Masters. FEB. 7....
Ironwood: built to last.(Trader Profile)(Ironwood Asset Management )
February 1, 2004... Ironwood Asset Management was named for the Ironwood tree found in Arizona's Senora desert, which is near the birthplace of Ironwond's President Sreekanth Rao. The Ironwood is famous for its longevity--living up to 1,000 years--which is why Rao...