Quarterly Journal of Economics articles from February 1999

Quarterly Journal of Economics archives from February 1999

Social norms and economic incentives in the welfare state.(includes appendices)
February 1, 1999... I. INTRODUCTION Both economic incentives and social norms influence individual behavior. While sociologists have emphasized social norms, economists have focused on economic incentives.(1) Most likely, the different approaches reflect the...

First impressions matter: a model of confirmatory bias.(includes appendices)
February 1, 1999... The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and...

Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?
February 1, 1999... I. INTRODUCTION In 1988 output per worker in the United States was more than 35 times higher than output per worker in Niger. In just over ten days the average worker in the United States produced as much as an average worker in Niger...

Has work-sharing worked in Germany?(includes appendices)
February 1, 1999... There is a widespread popular belief that unemployment can be reduced by reducing the number of hours worked per person. The reasoning is usually based on the idea that labor input is fixed, and it is thought that if each worker works fewer...

The forgotten rationale for policy reform: the productivity of investment projects.(includes appendices)
February 1, 1999... I. INTRODUCTION The last four decades of developing country experience should be persuasive: policies do matter for economic growth. Since 1960 the most successful economies have tended to maintain undistorted domestic prices, a stable...

Investment and demand uncertainty.(includes appendices)
February 1, 1999... I. INTRODUCTION Does uncertainty reduce investment? While many would assent to this proposition, their conclusion lacks firm theoretical grounds. The sign of the effect of uncertainty on investment decisions is in fact ambiguous. Depending...

The aftermath of appreciations.(includes appendices)
February 1, 1999... What is the probability that a currency that has appreciated significantly in real terms will require a nominal devaluation? The relevance of this question is easier to understand in the context of recent failed attempts to manage nominal...

Abortion legalization and child living circumstances: who is the "marginal child"?
February 1, 1999... Access to abortion is one of the most contentious public policy issues facing the United States today. The period since the legalization of abortion under the Roe v. Wade decision of 1973 has been marked by incessant debate over the appropriate...

Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts.(includes appendix)
February 1, 1999... Empirical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis as it applies to professional macroeconomic forecasts generally examine whether predictions are unbiased and efficient.(1) These analyses assume that because forecasters are paid to be...

Avoiding default: the role of credit in the consumption collapse of 1930.
February 1, 1999... I. INTRODUCTION The parallels between the 1920s and the most recent decade are sometimes disquieting. Lengthy recoveries spurred in part by credit-financed booms in consumption characterize both periods. Soaring stock markets bolstered...