Oxford Economic Papers articles from July 1995

Oxford Economic Papers archives from July 1995

Fiscal policy and employment in interwar Britain: some evidence from a new model.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction There has been extensive discussion of the British economy during the interwar period in recent literature. A major reason for this interest was the experience of a persistently high rate of unemployment in interwar...

Turning point prediction for the UK using CSO leading indicators.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction The general failure of conventional forecasting models to predict the recent downturn in economic activity for the United Kingdom, and the subsequent difficulty in dating the onset of recovery, has heightened interest in...

The term structure of interest rates in the London interbank market.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction The empirical literature on the term structure does not provide an unambiguous answer to the question of whether or not the rational expectations of future short-term interest rates are the dominant force determining...

The profitability of trading in the foreign exchange market: chartists, fundamentalists, and simpletons.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction Since the mid-1970s there have been major theoretical advances in the modelling of exchange rates, e.g. Branson (1976), Kouri (1976), Dornbusch (1976), Mussa (1976), and Frankel (1979). The modern exchange rate...

Market imperfections and the capital asset pricing model: some results from aggregate UK data.
July 1, 1995... I. Introduction . . . the SLB [capital asset pricing] model does the job expected of a good model. In rejecting it, repeatedly, our understanding of asset pricing is enhanced. (Fame 1991) It may seem difficult to...

Quantitative evaluations of efficient tax policies for Lucas' supply side models.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction Examining an infinite time horizon representative agent model, Chamley (1986) establishes that the welfare-optimizing tax rate on interest income must asymptotically go to 0. One interpretation is that with a very long...

Efficient over-manning.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction Over the last 15 years, much work has been done on the analysis of non-competitive wage formation and, in particular, on models in which unions and firms bargain over wages (right-to-manage models) or over both wages and...

Discounting and safety.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction A controversial but very important policy question concerns the extent to which it is appropriate to discount future safety and health effects in public sector cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. The importance...

The cost of nuclear power compared with alternatives to the Magnox programme.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction Between 1955 and 1972, the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) built eight `Magnox' nuclear power stations, with a total capacity of 4.8 GW. When the programme was started, it was hoped that they would have lower...

The Kaleckian origins of the Keynesian model.
July 1, 1995... 1. Introduction The IS-LM/aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand (AS-AD) model, hereafter the Keynesian model for short, is the mainstream interpretation of Keynes's General Theory (see Patinkin 1982, 1990a, b). In addition to Keynes, the...