Global Agenda articles from February 2009

Global Agenda archives from February 2009

Uncharted waters; Stockmarkets; An opportunity in the dividend-swap market.
February 1, 2009... An opportunity in the dividend-swap market DIVIDENDS give shares much of their value. In theory, the price of a share should be equal to the value of all future discounted cashflows. Of course, there is a big gap between theory and...

Green schemes; Climate change and the market; Leave green investing to the professionals.
February 2, 2009... Leave green investing to the professionals ONE industry that seems unaffected by the economic downturn is the unearthing of gloomy news about the environment. On January 30th, a group of 150 marine scientists issued what they called the...

Another way to pay; Firms in Russia need to restructure heavy debts; With S$117 billion in debt due this year, and the state less able to help out, private firms will seek debt restructuring.
February 2, 2009... Russian firms will need to restructure hefty debts Russia's indebted companies were bailed out by their government in 2008, but this year they are due to repay US$117bn to foreign creditors. With opportunities to roll over existing debt...

Swiss misses (and hits); The World Economic Forum; Our annual review of the moving and shaking at Davos.
February 3, 2009... Our annual review of the moving and shaking at Davos "SOCIAL warming has joined global warming as our biggest challenge," Alvaro Rodriguez, a Mexican businessman and social entrepreneur, told a group of Davos men and women at last week's...

Smoke without flame; China's economy; Fireworks alone won't save China's economy.
February 4, 2009... Fireworks alone won't save China's economy CHINA'S lunar new year celebrations are a messy affair, leaving streets covered with paper scraps, burnt-out boxes and other remnants of the fireworks that fill the nights with countless...

Taking stock; Asia's exporting markets shrink; Asia's exporters face dire circumstances.
February 4, 2009... Asia's exporters face dire problems Recent Asian export data have been desperately weak, underlining the vulnerability of the region to evaporating demand in key US and European markets--and firmly puncturing the "decoupling" theory, which...

Open sore; East Europe's economies; Unintended consequences of modernisation.
February 5, 2009... Unintended consequences of modernisation FIRST the financial crisis, then the economic one, then--soon--a social one, and after that a political one. The world economic crisis is hitting the countries of eastern Europe particularly hard....

A stimulus plan; Australia unveils a stimulus package; Despite renewed efforts by the government, Australia faces the grim prospect of recession.
February 5, 2009... Despite renewed efforts by the government, Australia faces the grim prospect of recession To prevent a recession, the Australian government on February 3rd unveiled a A$42bn (US$27bn) stimulus package. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of...

Scattered to the winds; Yves Saint Laurent; A great French collection goes on the block.(Correction notice)
February 5, 2009... A great French collection goes on the block Correction to this article BEHIND an unassuming courtyard door off the rue de Babylone on the rive gauche in Paris, an art-and-design collection like no other awaits dispersal. Yves Saint...

The 20% solution; Car engines; America finally warms to the stop-start car.
February 6, 2009... America finally warms to the stop-start car YOU can usually get half of most technical improvements for one-tenth of the total's cost. By the same token, the final tenth of the overall improvement usually costs up to half the total....

China's dry patch; China declares a drought emergency; Large parts of China are suffering from a rare winter drought, worsening the rural unemployment situation.
February 6, 2009... Large parts of China are suffering a winter drought After declaring a drought emergency, China's government on February 5th quadrupled the amount of money set aside for relief to Rmb400m (US$58.5m) from Rmb100m. The drought, brought on by...

Phew! February's sales; The art market passes an important test.
February 7, 2009... The art market passes an important test SOTHEBY'S this week announced it had achieved a world-record price for a Degas sculpture--and then heaved a sigh of relief. The seasonal sales in London (Impressionist and modern art on February...

Trimming hedges; Hedge funds; Studying the behaviour of hedge-fund managers.
February 8, 2009... Studying the behaviour of hedge-fund managers THE hedge-fund industry is struggling. Not only did it lose a record 18.3% in 2008, according to Hedge Fund Research, but investors withdrew $152 billion of capital in the last quarter of the...

Ocean blues; Marine reserves; A new conservation plan for the Chagos Islands.
February 9, 2009... A new conservation plan for the Chagos Islands A GROUP of leading conservation organisations have hatched a plan to create one of the world's largest marine reserves in British waters. The reserve is to be located in the pristine tropical...

Base motives; Kyrgyzstan wants America out; Kyrgystan plans to close an American military base.
February 9, 2009... Kyrgyzstan plans to force the closure of an American military base The Kyrgyz Republic, having been promised $2.3bn in Russian aid, says it will force the US to close its airbase in the Central Asian republic, which supports US forces in...

Manage like Obama; Management and politics; What can chief executives learn from the new commander-in-chief?
February 10, 2009... What can chief executives learn from the new commander-in-chief? BARACK OBAMA'S proposed $500,000 salary cap for executives is unlikely to win the president many friends in America's C-suites--even though the cap would apply only to firms...

South Africa's uncertain future; Confidence and investment drop in South Africa; South Africa's worsening economy.
February 11, 2009... A worsening economy in South Africa With business confidence at a six-year low, GDP growth forecast to slow to around 0.75% in 2009 (down from an annual average of 4.5% over the previous five years) and the government promising more...

Travels first, policies later; America and Japan; Hillary Clinton will find an anxious Japan.
February 11, 2009... Hillary Clinton will find an anxious Japan FOR weeks, Japanese politicians and diplomats have tried to divine from a meagre set of texts and utterances how the new administration of President Barack Obama plans to deal wtih America's...

Italy's debt burden; Italy plunges into recession; Why Italy's government is deterred from introducing a big fiscal stimulus.
February 11, 2009... Concern over Italy's public debt is deterring the government from introducing a large fiscal stimulus The minister of the economy, Giulio Tremonti, appears determined to keep Italy's public finances under control, fearing that a severe...

Not so smooth; Consequences of the crisis; Rethinking transition in ex-communist countries.
February 12, 2009... Rethinking transition in ex-communist countries LOOK around eastern Europe and the news reads like a thriller: call it "The Crash of 2009". The figures coming out now would have been unimaginable only a few months ago. Latvian GDP slumping...

Poland's currency woes; Poland's government plans to scrap currency contracts; The government of Poland risks upsetting investors, over currency contracts.
February 12, 2009... The government of Poland contemplates upsetting investors, as companies' bets on the currency go wrong Polish companies are potentially facing losses of US$4.4bn on currency options contracts taken out when the currency was worth nearly...

Only connect; Social networking; Reaching out online in an age of uncertainty.
February 13, 2009... Reaching out online in an age of uncertainty FACEBOOK can be fun place to meet and greet old friends. But it can also be hazardous for the unwary. When MySpace booted 80,000 sex offenders off its network recently, many of them started...

Al-Qaeda haven? Yemen and al-Qaeda; How to tackle al-Qaeda in Yemen.
February 13, 2009... Yemen is releasing a batch of prisoners just as al-Qaeda promises to launch a new campaign in the country Reports that the Yemeni government has ordered the release some 170 detainees suspected of being affiliated to al-Qaeda has raised...

Shock and the new; Contemporary-art sales; Contemporary art stumbles.
February 14, 2009... Contemporary art stumbles WHAT a difference a raised hand makes. At Sotheby's evening sale of contemporary art in London on February 5th, bidders eagerly put their hands up. An exciteable German collector even waved both arms to ensure he...

Performance anxiety; Stockmarkets; Hope and caution for contrarians.
February 15, 2009... Hope and caution for contrarians CONTRARIANS act against the market mood. "Buy when others are fearful, sell when they are greedy," Warren Buffett has advised. So after a dismal 2008 for equity markets, contrarians should be queuing up...

Small steps; Plastic bags; The greenest should not be the enemy of the green.
February 16, 2009... The greenest should not be the enemy of the green WALES, Washington DC, Malta and New Delhi may have little in common, but the same debate is currently raging in all four places, on the rights and wrongs of plastic bags. The Welsh...

Still aglister; A global trend in risk aversion keeps the price of gold high; Low interest rates and inflationary concerns will continue to support gold prices in 2009.
February 16, 2009... Why gold prices will probably remain high in 2009 Gold prices remain at historically high levels, with the commodity trading at well above US$900/oz* in mid-February. The global financial crisis should be good for gold's prospects in 2009....

On leave; Business.view; Business.view is on leave until March 9th.
February 17, 2009... Business.view is on leave until March 9th

Tentative steps in Saudi Arabia; Saudi Arabia appoints its first female cabinet minister; The king shows his reformist credentials by revamping the judiciary.
February 17, 2009... The king of Saudi Arabia shows some reformist credentials King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud has announced sweeping changes to the Saudi administrative and judicial structures, including the appointment of the kingdom's first female...

No disrespect; The press in Asia; East v West in the battle for press freedom.
February 18, 2009... East v West in the battle for press freedom WESTERN journalists sometimes quote with approval a maxim of the late Louis Heren, a former deputy editor of the Times of London: "When a politician tells you something in confidence," he wrote,...

Sweet confusion in Iraq; Iraq's government is poised to hand out oil contracts; Foreign oil firms want better terms in Iraq.
February 18, 2009... Foreign oil firms press for better terms as they bid for contracts in Iraq The fate of Iraq's first major post-war oilfield bid round remains in the balance. As the deadline for launching the formal tender approaches, foreign firms...

Keep calm and carry on; East Europe's economies; No need to head for the hills just yet.
February 19, 2009... No need to head for the hills just yet PLANT potatoes and get a gun. If you believe the doomsayers, the future in eastern Europe could hardly be bleaker. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the in-house Cassandra at the Daily Telegraph, forecasts...

Contagion? South Africa's economy will shrink; South Africa's economy is set to contract this year.
February 19, 2009... South Africa's economy is set to shrink South Africa's economy is set to shrink this year, as the global downturn affects financing and external demand. Growth should rebound next year, however, easing pressure on politicians. With...

Sex, lies and the internet; Cyber-security; Protecting kids from harassment in cyberspace.
February 20, 2009... Protecting kids from harassment in cyberspace THE wireless network at Mayhem Manor spreads from the router in the workroom to the living area of the one-storey hillside dwelling, but not as far as the bedrooms. And that's important. ...

A friendly visit; Canada gets a visit from Barack Obama; Barack Obama visits, Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister.
February 20, 2009... Barack Obama visits, Stephen Harper, Canada's prime minister Barack Obama sets foot on foreign soil for the first time as president on February 19th, following the tradition of new US presidents meeting first with their neighbours to the...

Spot colour; Clarice Cliff; A rare, vibrant collection of Art Deco pottery comes up for sale.
February 21, 2009... A rare, vibrant collection of Art Deco pottery comes up for sale CLARICE CLIFF was always her own person. A Victorian (she was born in 1899), she carried on with her married boss, drove her own car from an early age and never stopped...

Lustre lost; Gold; Nice glister, but equities are a better long-term bet.
February 22, 2009... Nice glister, but equities are a better long-term bet ONE might as well end with a big theme. As this is the last Market.view column*, we shall end with a chart covering a 90-year period, and the issue of metal versus paper assets. The...

And the loser is... Hollywood and the Oscars; The American film industry and the Academy Awards.
February 23, 2009... Why the Oscars don't matter THE gowns have been delivered and the bets laid. The back-patting advertisements have appeared in Variety and the Hollywood Reporter. The host, Hugh Jackman, is as handsome as the role demands. On the night of...

The greening of Canada? Canadian environmental policy; Stephen Harper looks to Washington, not Alberta.
February 23, 2009... Stephen Harper looks to Washington, not Alberta DESPITE being two of the most profligate energy users on the planet, the United States and Canada have spent little time over the last eight years discussing what they might do together to...

Bringing Syria in; Syria moves towards a new relationship with America; Syria's president is courted by American congressmen.
February 23, 2009... A new phase in relations between Syria and America The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, is being bombarded with successive visits by senior US congressmen, setting the scene for a new phase in relations between Damascus and Washington....

Intrigue in Equatorial Guinea; The government of Equatorial Guinea insists that a recent attack on the presidential palace was not a coup attempt.
February 24, 2009... Gunmen launch the latest mysterious attack against the government of Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea has once again been shaken by an apparent coup attempt, with a large group of fighters seeking to take over the presidential palace in...

Buyer of last resort; China's outbound investment; What China wants and can offer for its money.
February 25, 2009... What China wants and can offer for its money IT IS good to have money in good times, and absolutely wonderful to have it in bad. The agglomerations of state-owned companies and direct ministries that comprise China Inc have been debating...

Set to shrink; Brazil's economy is set to shrink; Despite government stimulus measures and monetary easing Brazil's economy is likely to shrink.
February 25, 2009... Brazil's economy will probably shrink, despite official efforts With global economic conditions deteriorating further and signs that Brazil's domestic economy is grinding to a halt, the Economist Intelligence Unit now expects the country's...

Closer still; Belarus; Europe should not embrace Belarus--yet.
February 26, 2009... Europe should not embrace Belarus--yet SO LONG as Belarus does not give diplomatic recognition to two Russian-backed puppet states in Georgia, its president, Alyaksandr Lukashenka (to give his name using the Belarusian transcription rules),...

Inflation's silver lining; Falling inflation is providing relief to Asia's hard-pressed economies.
February 26, 2009... Falling inflation is providing relief to Asian economies Inflationary pressures, which in the middle of 2008 were viewed as the biggest threat to Asia's growth prospects, have eased tremendously across the region. This development--though...

The spectre of default; The government of Ukraine insists it can avoid defaulting; Despite rising investor unease in Ukraine, the cabinet is in no hurry to adopt a credible budget.
February 27, 2009... Despite rising investor unease in Ukraine, the cabinet is in no hurry to adopt a credible budget Ukraine insists it has the funds to avoid default, in the wake of a sharp downgrade by an international ratings agency and CDS spreads that...

No strings attached.
February 27, 2009... A digital piano good enough for Carnegie Hall may have arrived IT IS annoying enough that the word "film" has to be used these days to distinguish a proper camera from a digital wannabe. What riles your correspondent even more is the use of...

Bull for a night; The Yves Saint Laurent sale; Echoes of the boom years in a notable Paris sale.
February 28, 2009... Echoes of the boom years in a notable Paris sale ON FEBRUARY 23rd at 7pm, in front of 35 television cameras and a live audience of 1,500 at the Grand Palais in Paris, Francois de Ricqles, Christie's French vice-president, mounted the...